Check back after week 1!

(If there are bubbles and team names instead of logos, it’s due to the amount of data. This drastically speeds up the processing time of the chart late in the season.)

Plotted above is the same chart you can find if you scroll down, with the yellow and green zones in the same exact position, but with this season’s data. This chart updates nightly, and will show which teams are real contenders throughout the season. Please be patient, it can take a few seconds to load the plot – it’s collecting the data and drawing the plot live.

What does it take to win a SuperBowl?

Points. Points win games. This doesn’t mean scoring is all that matters, or offense even – teams are working towards scoring more than their opponent even when they’re on defense. On this page, we are looking at Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play). With this information, we can know who has a real shot to win it all.

What is EPA?

Expected points is calculated based on huge amounts of historical data using down, distance, field position, time on clock, and sometimes even more factors depending on whose model you look at. To get Expected Points Added, you subtract the EP from before running a play from the EP after that play. If you get a first down on a 20 yard pass, EP will be much higher, so EPA will be positive. A sack lowers the chances of scoring on this drive, so EPA will be negative. This same stat works for defenses, too (although defenses want to have negative EPA).

What value for EPA per play is considered good?

So glad you asked. To determine this, I looked at the offensive and defensive EPA per play of every Super Bowl winner of the past 25 years. I plotted that here:

Huge thanks to nflfastr for the data. In the above graph, the green zone contains almost all of the Super Bowl Winners since 1999. The yellow zone cleans up most of the rest. You’ll notice that outside of the green zone, we have winners that were considered upsets when they took home the trophy. For the most part, we expect our winner for this season to be in that green zone.

What happens if you adjust for opponent strength?

This chart is the same as the above, but adjusted for strength of opponent. Essentially, this solves for strength of schedule by asking how much better your team did in terms of EPA compared to what an average team would’ve done against that same opponent. Most teams don’t move around too much, but a few take big leaps. (Take a look at the Commanders on this chart. The NFC Championship game appearance makes a lot more sense in this context.)